Nucor, Inc.

Fundamental analys of Nucor (ticker: NUE), July 15, 2017

Green picture of steel beam with text about Nucor, Inc.

Description:

Nucor is an American steel producer that sells steel and steel products in the United States and internationally. Their headquarters are in Charlotte, North Carolina.

 

Valuation:

At $60 and 24 times trailing earnings, Nucor is expensive. When looking at an average of the past three years’ earnings the P/E ratio comes in at 37 which is a lot of money.

The Price to book value is also high at 3.6.

 

Balance sheet:

The Balance sheet of course looks good. In the end, this is what the market is paying for. Their Debt to equity ratio is 0.8 which is considered low risk and their Working capital is $4.1 billion which at least means that they can pay their short-term bills.

 

Free cash flow and dividend:

Last year Nucor had a Free cash flow of $1.1 billion which equates to $3.50 a share. Of this they are paying a dividend of $1.49 which means that the current yield is 2.5%.

Nucor is part of The Dividend Aristocrats which means that they have been paying out uninterrupted and increasing dividends for more than 25 years.

 

Conclusion:

If the share had been 30 per cent cheaper I would have been a buyer. Now it is too expensive for my taste.

 

Update, August 14, 2017

Nucor is valued at 22.2 times its earnings in 2016. This is in my opinion too pricey.

If we then estimate the earnings for this year to $3.50 the P/E multiple comes in at 15.8 which is still too high, but slightly better.

Balance sheet, earnings and dividend history are all outstanding.

 

In summary I would not buy Nucor at these prices.

 

Update, December 13, 2017

The company has even gotten more overvalued since last time we looked at it. It is now valued at 25 times 2016’s earnings. If, on the other hand, look at the projected earnings for the year they come in at about $3.90 which gives a forward P/E ratio of 16 which is not altogether bad – although still expensive.

 

Nucor’s fundamentals are solid: Their Debt to equity ratio is 0.8 which is associated with relatively low risk. They have a Free cash flow yield of almost 6 per cent which is better that most of its peers. The net earnings to sales is 5 per cent which is a good number for a manufacturing company.

 

In summary, there’s nothing wrong with the company, but the market is willing to pay too much for it right now.

 

 

 If you would like to learn more about fundamental analysis you can do that here.

Johnson & Johnson

Fundamental analysis of Johnson & Johnson, June 30, 2017

Blue picture with red soap bottle icon and text about Johnson & Johnson

 

 

Description:

Johnson & Johnson is an American healthcare company that researches, manufactures and sells various products in the health care field.

 

Valuation:

The company is expensive at a cool 22.4 times trailing earnings. When looking at an average over the past three years’ earnings, the P/E ratio is almost the same at 23.2. Because the company has a lot of intangible assets the Book value is only $7.50 a share which obviously makes the Price to Book value very high.

 

Balance sheet:

The Balance sheet looks very stable with a Working capital of $38.7 bn and a Working capital to Debt ratio of 0.5. The Debt to Equity ratio is 1.0 and its current Return on Equity is 23 per cent which are solid numbers.

 

Free cash flow and dividend:

Johnson & Johnson has a Free cash flow of $15.5 bn which allows it to pay out a dividend of $2.95 which equates to a yield of 2.2 per cent. The company has been paying out uninterrupted and increasing dividends for 25 years.

 

Conclusion:

Johnson & Johnson is a very well run business with steady earnings and a good cash flow. The only problem is the valuation where you are paying too much for what you get. Had the company been 30 per cent cheaper I would be a buyer. Now it’s a HOLD.

 

Update, August 13, 2017

At 22.4 times earnings the Johnson & Johnson stock is too expensive for my taste. In the first quarter they earned $1.61 which allows us to say that they will be making at least $5.50 for the year.

This gives a forward P/E multiple of 24.2 which is way to high for my taste.

Otherwise it’s a well-managed company with solid earnings and a good dividend history.

 

Update, December 12, 2017

Johnson & Johnson have actually been proactive and increased their dividends accordingly as the stock has risen over the few years. Unfortunately the dividend payouts are not grounded on the fundamentals of the stock. Quite on the contrary.

The forward P/E ratio is still very high at 25.7 and earnings multiple over 2016’s earnings is also very high at 23.8.

All that said, there’s nothing wrong with the company’s finacial key data. Debt to equity is 1.0 which seems reasonable, return on equity is 22 per cent and net earnings to sales is 23 per cent which are all good numbers.

Conclusion:

There’s only one thing that is wrong with the company and that is that it is too expensive.

 

 

If you would like to learn more about fundamental analysis you can do that here.

Stanley Black & Decker

Fundamental analysis of Stanley Black & Decker, June 10, 2017

Yellow picture of wrench with text about Stanley, Black & Decker

Update, December 10, 2017

Since we last looked at this stock prices have gone up a further 20 per cent and it is now even more expensive. The earnings multiple comes in at 21.6 which is high and taking an average of the past three years’ earnings the multiple is 25 which is too expensive.

Having said all this, there’s nothing wrong with the company. They don’t have too much debt, have a good profitability to equity ratio (as is important for a manufacturing company) and reasonably high return on equity.

Conclusion:

Had the stock been priced at 50 per cent of its current value I would be a buyer. Now I’m not.

Update, August 8, 2017

The price of the SWK stock hasn’t really been moving since we last looked. The one thing that has changed is that they have released a new quarterly report. Based on the quarterly report the company earned $4.40 for the last six months.

If we say that the company will make $8 for the whole of 2017, then the P/E ratio will come in at 17.6 which is good, but still a little bit expensive.

The Price to book ratio is negative because of high intangibles.

The company made $1.14 million dollars in Free cash flow last year which equates to $7.70 per share. Of this they pay a dividend of 58 cents per quarter.

Conclusion:

I would not be a buyer of StanleyBlack & Decker at these prices.

 

 

Description:

Stanley Black & Decker is a Fortune 500 manufacturer of industrial tools, household hardware and provider of security products. Its headquarters are located in New Britain, Connecticut.

Valuation:

At $140, the Price to earnings ratio is 21.5 (trailing earnings) which in my opinion is expensive. The Price to the average of the past three years’ earnings is hardly better at 24.6. The Book value of the company is negative because they have a lot of intangible assets (which should be subtracted from the Equity to arrive at the Book value).

 

Balance sheet:

With Current assets of $4.8bn and Current Liabilities of $2.8bn, the company has a Working capital of $2bn which is a lot of cash in the bank. They have a Debt to equity ratio of 1.5 which is not out of the ordinary.

 

Free cash flow and dividend:

Stanley Black & Decker has a Free cash flow of $1.14bn which allows it to pay out a dividend of $2.26 per share (or a 1.6 per cent yield). The company is part of the Dividend aristocrats, which is a list of the companies that has paid out uninterrupted and rising dividends for 25 straight years.

 

Conclusion:

Stanley Black & Decker is a well run company with solid earnings and a good free cash flow. However, the current price is too high for my taste.

 

 

 

 

 If you would like to learn more about fundamental analysis you can do that here.

Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

Fundamental analysis of Colgate-Palmolive (CL).

White picture of Colgate-Palmolive logo with text about Colgate

Update, December 01, 2017:

At almost 27 times 2016 earnings, Colgate Palmolive is still expensive. If current trends continue, the company will approximately make $2.55 for 2017 which gives a forward P/E ratio of 28.4.

Because the company has a lot of intangible assets its book value is negative which makes for a difficult Price to book valuation. Colgate’s cash flow yield is 4 per cent which is in line with its competitors.

The stock is still too expensive for my taste.

 

Description:

Colgate-Palmolive is an American consumer products manufacturer with a global business. It is based in New York City, New York.

Valuation:

The company is expensive at 27 times last year’s earnings. Looking at the past three years’ earnings it is even more expensive at 33 times average earnings.

Because the company has a lot of intangible assets – which are supposed to be subtracted from the equity when calculating the book value – the book value is very low and even negative.

Therefore it does not make sense to calculate a Price to Book value ratio.

Balance sheet:

Colgate-Palmolive has a working capital of $1 billion which is a lot of cash in the bank.

When looking at the Balance sheet in detail it becomes apparent that their liabilities are almost as great as their assets and that the equity portion is very low.

Nevertheless, people seem quite happy to pay for their ability to make money out of the equity.

Cash flow and dividend:

The company had a Free cash flow last year of $2.5 billion which equates to $2.84 per share. Of this they are paying out a dividend of $1.50 which equates to 2.1 per cent.

Colgate-Palmolive is also involved in buying back shares which in general makes the shareholders who are selling their shares richer.

The company is a part of the Dividend aristocrats which have a history of paying out uninterrupted and increasing dividends for at least 25 years.

Conclusion:

At these prices I would not be buyer of Colgate-Palmolive. For me to be interested prices would need to fall by at least 50 per cent.

 

 If you would like to learn more about fundamental analysis you can do that here.

 

My investment strategy

Today I will talk about my investment strategy.

This is a topic that I’ve explored before and most notably you can read about it here and here.

I’ve tried to do a graphic representation of the strategy and here it is:

graphic representation of my investment strategy

As you probably already know I try to focus on small-cap stocks with high stable earnings and a good dividend yield.

Let’s go through the chart one point at a time:

  1. Yield of 7 per cent or more. These prices are obviously only possible in highly depressed markets like the one we had during the financial crisis in early 2009. But if you find them congratulations as you will likely be earning splendidly from the stock in the future.
  2. Dividend history. Here we are looking at the company’s history of paying out dividends. Is it good or bad? Has the company a history of increasing its dividend over time or has it been the same for the past fifteen years? Obviously we prefer a high that is also increasing over time.
  3. P/E ratio of maximum seven. Because our goal is to maximize our gains we are constantly looking out for companies that are trading at low earning multiples. The lower the P/E ratio, the more value we will get. Now, obviously this is only true if the company has been making solid earnings over time and not making exceptional earnings one year only. According to famous investor John Lee, a “double seven” is a company with a P/E ratio lower than seven and a dividend yield of at least seven per cent.
  4. Patience. This term comes from the fact that every investor should be able to wait for the value to come sufficiently to suit his or her book. The easiest task is in fact identifying the shares that are interesting. The most difficult is to wait for prices to come down.
  5. Leverage. This term signifies financial leverage which should not be used excessively. One example where it can be used is if there is an interest rate spread between the money you borrow and the money you get in return from your investment. In that case it makes financial sense to borrow, but otherwise we would advice against it.
  6. Integrity. This is where we are looking at the integrity of the business model when we are investing in a company. Many factors, such as trust between the founders and our clients, come into play when we are managing other people’s money.
  7. Reinvest dividends. This is the ultimate investment trick. It allows you to compound your return for each dividend check and finally earn a higher return than if you had only counted on the price increase of, let’s say, a commodity.

Conclusion:

Today I have been talking about my investment strategy and how it translates into double digit earnings.

Hormel Foods

Fundamental analysis of Hormel Foods Corp. (ticker: HRL), May 26, 2017

White picture with green grain icon with text about Hormel Foods

Update October 31, 2017

Although prices have come down slightly since the beginning of August, the Hormel stock is still expensive.

It now trades at 18.4 times (2016) earnings.

Its expected forward earnings come in at $1.56 for 2017 which gives a forward P/E ratio of 19.3.

Hormel paid a dividend of 58 cents last year which seems to be increased this year to 68 cents.

At current dividends the yield is 2.3 per cent.

The cash flow yield for 2016 is 4.0 per cent. It is within the range of what you would expect for a company like this.

Conclusion:

While earnings and dividends are solid, I would still hesitate to buy stock of the company at these prices.

 

Update August 7, 2017

Hormel Foods is still expensive at 20.5 times trailing earnings. If we assume that the company will earn $1.60 this year the P/E multiple come in at a similar 21.0. The P/E over the average past three years is 25.1.

Because the company has a lot of intangible assets (these are to be subtracted from the equity to arrive at the book value) the Book value is negative.

The company has a working capital of $975 million which puts them in a good position.

The Free cash flow is $740 million which amounts to $1.36 per share. Of this they pay a dividend of $0.68 this year.

Conclusion:

While the company is still a little bit too expensive for my taste, it has got an interesting balance sheet.

Another good thing about the company is that it has solid earnings and a steady cash flow.

Hormel Foods has been paying out uninterrupted and increasing dividends for more than 25 years.

At these prices I would give it a HOLD.

 

 

 

Description:

Hormel Foods produces and commercializes various meat and food products. It is based in Austin, Minnesota.

 

Valuation:

The company is expensive at a trailing P/E of 21.5 and considering an average of the past three years’ earnings it looks even worse at 26.3. The Book value is negative due to the high Goodwill component of the Balance sheet which consequently gives a negative Price to Book value.

 

Balance sheet:

The Current assets to Current liabilities ratio looks good at 1.9 with a Net working capital of $975 million. The biggest problem for Hormel is its debt where the Debt to equity ratio is very high at 5.0.

 

Cash flow and dividend:

The Free cash flow last year came in at $735 million which equates to $1.36 per share. The Free cash flow allows the company to pay out a dividend 58 cents (1.7%). The dividend has been uninterrupted and increasing for more than 25 years which makes the part of the Dividend aristocrats.

 

Summary:

Hormel would be a good investment if it was about half the price, but now it is too expensive for me. I would not buy new stock at this point, but if you already own it by all means : HOLD.

 

 If you would like to learn more about fundamental analysis you can do that here.

Why improving your skills may lead to more luck

If you are a golfer you know that you don’t always the skills to hit the ball perfectly.

Sometimes you miss the ball ever so slightly and the results are horrible.

But sometimes the reverse is true – you miss the shot, but your drive still turns out all right and somehow it seems as though the better you get at the game, the more it happens.

How can that be?

Of course, if you improve your skills, the better at the game you will get. That’s a given.

So then when you hit the ball badly, you have practiced enough on your swing not to make a complete mess out of the shot.

That’s all very good, but what has that got to do with investing?

Quite a lot it turns out.

If you are getting into the habit of analyzing your stocks you will eventually acquire skills.

Those skills are crucial when it comes to determine if a certain stock provides good value or not.

When you decide to either sell or buy new stock of a particular company, you will realize that you are getting better at it over time.

What in the past may may have seemed as good decision will with improved skills rank lower and vice versa.

Conclusion:

The better you get at something the luckier you will get.

 

 

 

 

Stop wasting time

It is a dream of many investors is to hit a “ten bagger”.

A “ten bagger” is where you are making more than ten times your initial investment when exiting the investment.

Of course, it’s nice when it happens, but it’s important to remember that not all stocks have that potential.

During the course of your life you will be lucky to get 5 or 10 of those, maximum.

In most other cases stocks will be so overvalued that it will be virtually impossible to find a stock that grows as much.

The question then becomes what do you do when you can’t find any good investment opportunities.

To answer that question we first need to recognize that there are  many different investment strategies. You can for example look at the charts, at growth companies or you can buy them all in an index-fund.

But the one that I favor is one where you are buying great value at a decent price (and not the other way around).

That is the reason why it pays off in the long run to wait for the opportunities to arise. They always do.

So you may think that you are wasting your time when you are not buying, but it is not true. What you are really doing is that you are waiting for the price to come down to a more favorable point.

 

 

 

 

Technical analysis

Today I want to look at technical analysis of precious metals and other commodities.

Orange picture of graph with text about technical analysis

Technical analysis of crude oil, October 1, 2017

This is a weekly chart of crude oil:

Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 1. Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is heading up towards the descending trend line and right now it sits just at it. From now on it will be interesting to see where prices will be going, if they go up or down. If they go up they could rise fast, but my hunch is that they will go down from here.

 

Technical analysis of gold, September 23, 2017

This is a weekly chart of gold:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 1. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart broke out of a descending trend line a few weeks back. Now it has hit the trend line again, but from the upside this time. We have to wait and see what happens on Monday morning, but normally I would consider this chart pattern being a buying opportunity.

Technical analysis of crude oil, September 14, 2017

This is a weekly chart of crude oil:

Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 3. Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is caught between two opposing trends: One descending trend line above and one lateral trend line below. Prices are now pushing up agains a rising 50-week moving average which makes a break-through likely.

 

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices go through both the 50-week moving average as well as the descending trend line above.

This scenario is fairly likely. I would give it a probability of 70 per cent.

 

The bullish/bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices falter at either the 50-week moving average or the the descending trend line. Given the chart pattern I don’t believe it being very likely. I would give it a probability of 15 per cent.

 

The bearish scenario:

This is where prices go south from here. I would also give such a scenario a probability of 15 per cent.

 

 

Technical analysis of gold, September 9, 2017

This is what a gold chart looks like:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 2. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

We have a breakout!

Now there is nothing holding gold back and all the resistance is gone.

But would I be buyer at this stage?

Probably not. I would prefer to wait for a pull-back down at the descending trend line.

But essentially this is good news if you are bullish on gold.

 

Technical analysis of crude oil, September 3, 2017

This is what a chart of crude oil looks like:

Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 3. Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

We are still caught between the 50-week moving average and the 100-week. It looks as though the chart hasn’t really decided for which trend to follow.

The bullish case:

In this scenario prices bouncing off the 100-week MA and continue up through the 50-week and the descending trend line.

The bearish case:

In this scenario prices are falling through the 100-week MA and continue through the lateral trend line that is drawn in Figure 1.

I would give both these scenarios a probability of 50 percent at this stage.

Technical analysis of gold, August 24, 2017

This is what a chart of gold looks like:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 4. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is squeezed between two opposing trends. The 100-week moving average is acting as support.

The bearish scenario:

In the bearish scenario prices falling down from here and then go through the rising 100-week moving average. I would give such a scenario a probability of 10 per cent.

The bearish/bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices are falling down to the 100-week moving average, but then they rebound and go higher. I would give such a scenario a probability of 30 per cent.

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices go through the descending trend line that is acting as resistance in the chart. I would give such a scenario a probability of 60 per cent.

Technical analysis of crude oil, August 17, 2017

This is what a chart of crude oil looks like:

Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 3. Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

Looking at the chart it becomes clearer to me that it is in a head-and-shoulders-pattern. The chart looks heavy.

The bullish scenario:

In the bullish scenario prices find their footing at the 100-week moving average and then move higher. Given the current chart pattern I would give such a scenario a probability of 15 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In the bearish scenario prices along their current path and go lower. That means that they will penetrate through the 100-week moving average without any resistance. Given the chart pattern, I would give such a scenario a high probability of 85 per cent.

Technical analysis of crude oil, August 5, 2017

This is a weekly chart of crude oil:

Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 4. Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is getting squeezed between one supporting trend line (below) and another putting pressure on prices (above). Furthermore, there may be head-and-shoulders pattern building up in the chart.

The bullish scenario:

In the bullish scenario prices are supported by the 50-week moving average and move up through the descending trend line.

At this point I would put a ten per cent probability on that happening.

The bullish/bearish scenario:

This scenario is where prices move up and kiss the descending trend line but then move down.

I would give such a scenario a probability of ten per cent.

The bearish/bullish scenario:

This is where prices simply fall down and plunge through both the 50-week and the 100-week moving average. When prices finally hit the horizontal trend line then they rebound and continue within the trading range.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 75 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices are simply plunging through both moving averages and then also the lateral trend line in the chart.

I would give such a scenario a low probability of 5 per cent.

Technical analysis of gold, July 31, 2017

As usual, this is a weekly chart of gold:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 2. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is caught in a pennant like pattern with prices edging up against a declining trend line.

Prices are further lifted by the rising 100-week moving average (dotted turquoise line).

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices rediscover gravity and fall down from here.

That happens despite the rising 100-week moving average.

Because this is not very likely I give it a probability of 15 percent.

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices are moving up and through the declining trend line.

This is a likely scenario given the current chart pattern. I would give it a probability of 40 per cent.

The bullish/bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices move up and touch the declining trend line, but then fall down.

This is also a likely scenario and I would give it a probability of 45 per cent.

Technical analysis of gold, July 24, 2017

This is a weekly chart of gold:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 3. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is in a classic pennant where it is pushing up on the descending trend line above.

 

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices go up from here, but they don’t stop at the upper trend line but continue through.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 50 per cent.

The bullish/bearish scenario:

This scenario is very similar to the one above.

The only difference is that prices stop at the declining trend line and continue down.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 40 per cent.

The bearish scenario

In the bearish scenario prices are rediscovering gravity and go down from here.

Because it is not very likely I give it a probability of 10 per cent.

Technical analysis of crude oil, July 19, 2017

This is a weekly chart of crude oil:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 4. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is extending its right shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern. The chart looks heavy and I believe it will go lower from here.

The bullish scenario:

In the bullish scenario prices defy gravity and go up from here. I would give this a low probability of 5 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In the bearish scenario prices go down from here. Given that the chart looks heavy I would give this a high probability: 95 per cent.

Conclusion:

The chart looks poised to go lower with a head-and-shoulders pattern developing.

Technical analysis of crude oil, July 13, 2017

Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 4. Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart looks heavy with a left shoulder, a head and a right shoulder. This is usually a sign of the chart going lower from here.

Furthermore, prices are being pushed down by the 100-week moving average.

The bullish scenario:

In the bullish scenario prices defy gravity and edge higher from here.

I would give this a probability of 15 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices are indeed being pushed down by the 100-week moving average.

Given the current shape of the chart, I would give this a probability of 85 per cent.

Conclusion:

My reading of the crude oil chart is that it is likely to go lower from here.

Technical analysis of gold, July 6, 2017

This is a weekly chart of gold:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 5. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is caught between a descending trend line and a rising 100-week moving average.

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices are pushing up against the descending trend line and then through it.

Given the chart pattern I give this a probability of 65 per cent.

The bullish/bearish scenario:

Here prices are advancing up but then they go down at the trend line.

I would give this scenario a probability of 20 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices are inexplicably going down from here.

I would give this a probability of 5 per cent.

The bearish/bullish scenario:

Here prices fall just like above, but when they reach the ascending trend line they change direction and head up.

I would give this a probability of 10 per cent.

Technical analysis of crude oil, July 1, 2017

This is a weekly chart of crude:

Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white.

Figure 3. Weekly chart of crude oil (XOIL.X) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is getting squeezed between two opposing trend lines. The one above is descending while the one below is lateral.

If we wait a couple of weeks we may see head-and-shoulders pattern forming.

The bullish scenario:

In the bullish scenario prices continue on their upward path that began this week (I didn’t believe that it would).

I would give such a scenario a low probability of 10 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices are being pushed down the 100-week moving average.

I would give such a scenario a high a probability: 90 per cent.

Conclusion:

The chart looks bearish. We’ve tested the lateral trend line several times the past six months and in my opinion it will fall. The question is how deep.

Technical analysis of gold, June 26, 2017

This is what a weekly chart of gold looks like:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 4. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description of chart:

Prices are now sitting on a declining 50-week moving average. If they go up from here they will face overhead resistance in the form of a descending trend line and if they fall they are likely to be caught by the ascending 100-week moving average below.

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices are being saved by the 50-week moving average that will act as support. After that they will then continue through the descending trend line.

This is an unlikely scenario because of the nature of the chart pattern.

I would only give this scenario a probability of 10 per cent.

The bullish/bearish scenario:

This scenario is as the one above with the difference that prices stop at the descending trend line and go down from there.

I give that scenario a probability of 30 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices go down all the way through the 100-week moving average and the ascending trend line.

This is unlikely to happen but nevertheless I give it a probability of 5 per cent.

The bearish/bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices first fall but are then caught either by the ascending 100-week moving average or the ascending trend line below in the chart.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 55 per cent.

Technical analysis of crude oil, June 21, 2017

This is a weekly chart of crude oil:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 5. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart has been in a pennant until a few weeks ago. Now all the resistance in the chart is gone.

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices neglect gravity and head up from here without sensing any downward pressure.

While this scenario is not impossible, I don’t consider it likely.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 1 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices go down because there is no resistance left in the chart.

At this juncture this is the likely scenario.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 99 per cent.

Conclusion:

It seems likely that we are going to fill up our cars cheaply this summer.

Technical analysis of gold, June 19, 2017

This is a weekly chart of gold:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 6. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Description:

The chart is in a pennant, currently on its way down, and once it breaks out of the resistance or the support, the move will be violent.

The bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices head up from here and break out of the resistance that is weighing on the upside.

Its not an unlikely scenario, but I would only give it a probability of 20 per cent.

The bearish scenario:

In this scenario prices go down from here. This is the more likely scenario given how prices have moved lately.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 80 per cent.

Conclusion:

In the short-term prices are likely to continue down, but in the medium-term it looks as though they are moving up. The reason why I say this is because prices have been knocking on the upper resistance zone at least twice recently. It would surprise me if they did not succeed to go through at some point.

Technical analysis of gold, June 12, 2017

This is what a weekly chart of gold looks like:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 7. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Prices sit just at the descending trend line and depending upon where they move from here will determine their movement for a long time.

The bullish scenario

In this scenario prices are slowly edging their way through the descending trend line.

If the resistance is gone prices have no immediate thing stopping them from much higher.

In favor of this is the fact that we are above both the 50-week and the 100-week moving averages.

Given the lower high made in February, I’d still give such a scenario a probability of 40 per cent.

The bearish scenario

In this scenario prices are headed lower from here.

The arguments for lower prices are the same as above.

I would give such a scenario a probability of 60 per cent.

Technical analysis of crude oil, June 09, 2017

This is a weekly chart of crude oil:

Daily chart of the crude oil index (XOIL.X). 50-day moving average is in blue and 100-day is in turquoise. Ascending and descending straight trend line are in white.

Figure 8. Daily chart of the crude oil index (XOIL.X). 50-day moving average is in blue and 100-day is in turquoise. Ascending and descending straight trend line are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

Summary:

Prices have now come down again and are now pushing against the ascending trend in the Figure 1.

The bearish scenario:

I will begin with the bearish scenario. This is where prices fall down through the ascending trend line and then continue down. At this point I would give such a scenario a probability of 65 per cent.

The bearish/bullish scenario:

In this scenario prices first go down but then rebound once they hit the trend line below. This is not implausible and I give such a scenario a probability of 30 per cent.

The bullish scenario

This is where prices shoot straight up from here. Given recent trends I don’t consider it very likely and I would give it a probability of 5 per cent.

Technical analysis of gold, June 05, 2017

This is what a weekly chart of gold looks like:

Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white

Figure 9. Weekly chart of Gold (XGLD) from the end of 2015 until now. 50-week moving average in blue and 100-week moving average in turquoise. Ascending and descending trend lines are in white. Chart: FreeStockCharts.com

What we are seeing is that prices are coming up towards the descending trend line.

The bullish scenario

In this scenario prices are going through the declining trend line and then continue up beyond.

Given that the 100-week moving average is slightly ascending, I would give such a scenario a probability of 70 per cent.

 

The bearish scenario

In this scenario prices are going down from here.

While a distinct possibility, I only give such a scenario a probability of 30 per cent.

If you want to learn the basics of technical analysis you can do that here.

S & W Seed

Fundamenal analysis of S & W Seed Company (ticker: SANW), May 19, 2017

Black and green picture of grain icon with text about S & W Seed Company.

Update: 25 September, 2017

The company made a loss of $11.8 million last year which equates to -$0.67 per share. Despite of that the share is traded at $3.175 which is a lot of money. Last year the stock was trading at over $5.00. I’m not really sure that S&W Seed constitutes good value at present.

Update: 2 August, 2017

The company just made 2 cents per share last quarter. If this trend continues and S & W Seed makes 10 cents for the whole of 2017 the forward P/E ratio 34.5. The Price to Book value is still high at 2.5.

Looking at the Balance sheet things look a little better. The company has a Book value of $21 million which equates to $1.40 per share. The Working capital is $16 million which is good.

The company has a Free cash flow of $4.1 million which equals 27 cents per share. No dividends are paid out.

Conclusion:

Given the erratic earnings I would not be a buyer of S & W Seed at these prices.

 

 

Description:

S&W Seed Company is an agricultural company that is specializing in the breeding, growing and commercialization of alfalfa seeds.

 

Valuation:

SANW is expensive at trailing a P/E of 172. The average earnings over the past three years is looking even worse at a negative 6 cents.

Consequently the P/E ratio over the average three years is negative.

The Price to Book value is 2.5 which is high.

The earnings are to say the least erratic over the years. Last year they 2 cents per share and the year before the company had a loss of 25 cents per share.

The Shiller earnings since 2009 are a negative 4 cents.

 

Balance sheet:

Then we come to the balance sheet and here things looks a little better.

The Working capital is a solid $16,000,000 which equates to $1.08 per share.

The company has a Debt to equity ratio of 0.9 and a Current assets to Current liabilities ratio of 1.4.

 

Free cash flow and dividend:

The company has a good Free cash flow of $4,000,000, but they do not pay out any dividend which seems reasonable given their non-existent earnings.

 

Conclusion:

S & W Seed has great potential, but it is not an investment for me at current prices.

 

If you would like to learn more about fundamental analysis you can do that here.